The nuclear non-use norm remains unbroken, and no new countries have acquired nuclear weapons since Russia’s landgrab of Crimea in 2014. But the alliance’s nuclear weapons also deter Russia from attacking the supply hubs in Poland and elsewhere that facilitate Ukraine’s self-defence. Russia’s nuclear weapons may dissuade NATO countries from sending troops to fight alongside those of Ukraine. The norms, practices, and institutions of the nuclear age – no matter how unjust – remain largely as they were before the war. Yet, the global nuclear order has proven resilient to Putin’s challenge. Indeed, the very fact of Russia’s war could break the international non-proliferation regime – as countries facing threats to their security may be more likely to seek the bomb, and those that already have it will never give it up.
The Kremlin has also conditioned arms control talks with the United States on Ukraine, stating that such discussions “cannot be isolated from geopolitical realities” in an attempt to blackmail Washington into giving up on Kyiv.
The Russian president, Vladimir Putin, has issued countless nuclear threats since February 2022: among other things, warning those who might consider coming to Ukraine’s defence of consequences “never seen in your entire history” placing Russia’s nuclear forces on “enhanced combat duty” and preparing to deploy Russian nuclear warheads in neighbouring Belarus. Russia’s war against Ukraine is intimately tied to the global nuclear order.
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